Happy Tuesday! Today is a lesson for buyers and sellers alike. Well, two lessons.
Nothing is real until it’s real
You can’t time the market
For those who haven’t heard, it’s increasingly likely that Amazon is will pull out of its plans to move a campus to Long Island City. The company expected to be greeted with open arms and a populace/government that would be excited. Instead it has been met with anger and frustration, culminating in passionate speeches by lawmakers and protests by LIC residents. Our city is in the midst of both an affordable housing crisis and a complete subway meltdown due to years of misrepresentation and mismanagement. It seems like Amazon’s new campus would exacerbate these issues and people like Cuomo, who is completely removed from reality/society/having a soul, don’t seem to get it. Hence the outrage.
Since I think Amazon should get 0% tax breaks ever and I don’t want this deal to happen, this is amazing news. But for anyone who didn’t take my advice and who bought or leased in the frenzy that began right after the announcement, this is potentially very costly.
Which leads me back to my two points: The deal wasn’t actually real until Amazon purchased or leased office space in LIC, which it has not. It’s exactly like the L Shutdown. The announcement caused an initial market adjustment, but the real adjustment was always going to happen when people realized what their actual life would be like once the shutdown had occurred. Then, once the shutdown was canceled, people again RUSHED to lease and buy at newly elevated prices, ignoring the fact that there is still no plan. A train that doesn’t run nights or weekends will not be disruptive for the many lower income commuters who depend on that train, but it’s still annoying and will cause considerable inconvenience.
So, whatever the situation, remember the two most important rules of NYC real estate: nothing is guaranteed until it actually happens, and you can’t time the market, so buy or rent where you want, when you want. You can make educated guesses, but if you get caught up in the drama and hype, you will likely lose money.
Oh, and PS, the New York Value here is that we didn’t just roll over for Amazon. People are understandably pissed off that a giant monopoly with questionable business practices (that I still love and depend on but also hate on principle) was offered MASSIVE tax incentives to come to a city that is already having issues with overwhelmed transit systems and an influx of wealth that is forcing out the working class. To those of you who have never been dependent on the subway to get to your jobs, congrats. You have no idea the stress that comes with increasing your commute while the trains are, for lack of a better word, fucked. The more people dependent on it, and the more lower earners are forced further and further away from their jobs, the worse it gets. If Amazon wanted to come here, the only thing that I could see to make it worthwhile would be them funding the massive subway overhaul. And no tax breaks. Oh, and they 100% should have moved to the Bronx instead of LIC.